July 18, 2008

A Global Presidential Campaign
Bottom Line

What better evidence is there that globalization is real and permanent than the foreign trips of both presidential candidates? Never before in my memory have non-incumbent candidates for president given campaign speeches in foreign countries. Barack Obama is planning to do just that next week. John McCain has already given campaign speeches in Ottawa, Colombia and Mexico, talking up free trade and appealing to Hispanic voters. He has also racked up frequent flier miles making stops last spring from the U.K. to Iraq. Cindy McCain has traveled recently to Vietnam and Rwanda with international relief organizations.

Barack Obama’s upcoming trip is an audition on the world stage where the most important critics will be the voters back home. Of course, Senator Obama’s travel is intended to make a positive impression and burnish his international credentials. A major theme of his sojourns is his promise to be a commander-in-chief who will listen to America’s allies. The intention is for Obama to look knowledgeable, diplomatic and presidential. This could backfire, of course, if he makes a serious gaffe or otherwise reveals ignorance of global and national security issues.

Also, there is the ‘out-of-touch elitist’ label (‘Bittergate’) he’s been fighting since the Pennsylvania primary. Republicans are pointing out that Democrats have more of a European worldview than the Arizona Senator does; McCain will likely appeal to any xenophobic sentiment. John McCain is most popular among older blue-collar workers who question Obama’s patriotism and don’t see him as ‘one of us.’

Senator Obama’s six-day foreign trip to the Middle East and Europe starts Monday. He is expected to separately visit Iraq and Afghanistan as early as the end of the week as part of a small congressional delegation. The group is scheduled to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, President Jalal Talabani, and other Iraqi government and Parliament leaders.

Foreign campaigning is not only new to the U.S., but it is virtually unheard of in other countries as well. It is hard to imagine a candidate for high office in Canada, Europe or Asia staging a campaign speech before Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate (as Obama’s people allegedly suggested) or New York’s World Trade Center site—both historical and emotional symbols. Presidents Kennedy and Reagan spoke at the Brandenburg Gate, but certainly not during an election campaign. And there is no doubt that Americans will watch these unprecedented events and be impacted by the response and size of the crowds. Given Obama’s noted charisma and popularity in much of left-leaning Europe, we can imagine the Parisians treating him like a rock star (or a Tour de France winner).

There are serious land mines in this endeavour. In the Middle East, Senator Obama is expected to meet privately with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, where he could encounter criticism for endorsing an “undivided” Jerusalem. In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, he will face opposition to his proposal to have direct talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Is it strange that both candidates are spending time abroad when domestic economic concerns top the list of voter worries? Not when national security is also a paramount issue and Americans are realizing that their own economic well-being is no longer determined strictly within American borders. The U.S. is home to most of the world’s largest multinational corporations. Over the past decade or more, bond and stock prices have been boosted by the mammoth inflow of foreign capital, and currently much of the required capital injections at troubled banks are funded by foreign entities. Consumers have benefited from the huge influx of cheap foreign goods, but jobs have been lost to low-wage locales as American business struggles to remain competitive and profitable. While in the past, most Americans had no knowledge of U.S. foreign exchange rates, today more people than ever realize the falling dollar has reduced their purchasing power and affected their spending behaviour. What’s more, many Americans rue the rise in global anti-American sentiment and look to the next President to improve America’s brand. At the same time, Americans want a president who can hold his own—that he’s no pushover. Much of this will be visceral.

The Bottom Line: This is a presidential election campaign like no other at a period of transition in the U.S. and global economies. The future role of the U.S. as importer and lender of last resort is in question; while benefiting much of the rest of the world, it has clearly caused unsustainable disequilibria. No longer can nor should the U.S. be the world’s banker and the world’s consumer. Not only are the excesses in U.S. housing and financial markets unwinding, but the U.S. role as the single anchor currency and anchor economy is unwinding as well. The economic hegemony of the U.S. is no longer feasible, necessary nor desirable. The global economy of the future will be increasingly multilateral without single-country dominance. The industrial world will share its dominant role with the emerging world as national economic boundaries continue to blur. In this environment, domestic policies must be managed with a global view. We have seen the contagion effect between countries with the 1997 Asian crisis and now the subprime crisis. Internationalization of the current presidential campaign is yet another step in this direction.



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March 23, 2010
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March 12, 2010
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March 2, 2010
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January 8, 2010
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December 9, 2009
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December 8, 2009
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December 4, 2009
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November 13, 2009
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October 22, 2009
Sherry Cooper Takes Questions from the Globe and Mail
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October 15, 2009
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October 2, 2009
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September 18, 2009
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September 11, 2009
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September 9, 2009
Unbelievable
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September 4, 2009
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August 28, 2009
Upward Revision in Q3 U.S. Growth
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August 21, 2009
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August 17, 2009
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August 12, 2009
As Expected, No Fed Policy Change
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July 24, 2009
Pain Not Over Yet
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July 17, 2009
The Painful Process of Deleveraging
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July 10, 2009
Let's Get Real
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July 2, 2009
Employment and the Fed
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June 8, 2009
Post-Crisis Withdrawal
As financial markets heal, banks are shying away from government assistance, betting that they can rely fully on the markets to build capital positions MORE

June 5, 2009
Worst Is Behind Us
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May 28, 2009
Bet You Things Are Better Than You Think
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May 15, 2009
Running the Printing Presses to Fund the Deficit
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May 3, 2009
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April 29, 2009
Fed Still Adding Juice
Although the Fed announced no new initiatives today, clearly the tone of the press release suggests that the Fed will continue to support previously announced credit easing and expects to do so “for an extended period” MORE

April 27, 2009
Swine Flu: Let's Not Get Carried Away
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April 24, 2009
Investing Is No Longer Child's Play
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March 25, 2009
Future of Finance Conference
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March 18, 2009
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March 13, 2009
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March 11, 2009
More Signs of Hope Needed
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February 27, 2009
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February 5, 2009
The Demonization of Banks
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January 30, 2009
Can You Count on Dividends?
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January 28, 2009
Fed Does Not Dispel Confusion
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January 27, 2009
The Advil Budget
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January 23, 2009
Deflationary Forces Accelerate
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January 9, 2009
Recession Worsens
The latest jobs data signal that the year-long U.S. recession is worsening and the Canadian recession is moving in with full force MORE

December 18, 2008
One Major Lesson
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December 16, 2008
Fed Slashes Rate to 0-to-25 bps Range; Historic Use of Fed Balance Sheet to Ease
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December 5, 2008
Forget Old-Time Fiscal Stimulus
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December 3, 2008
Tough Times, Aggressive Actions
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November 21, 2008
Urgent Action Needed
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November 15, 2008
GM Bailout - Part 2
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November 14, 2008
Should the U.S. Government Bail Out GM?
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November 6, 2008
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November 5, 2008
National Catharsis
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October 16, 2008
The Consumer Recession
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October 10, 2008
Paulson and the G-7 Do the Right Thing
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October 10, 2008
More Action-Crisis Intensifies
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October 9, 2008
The Wealthy Boomer interviews Sherry Cooper
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October 8, 2008
Global Rate Cuts... Finally!
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October 7, 2008
Unbelievable Complexity
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October 1, 2008
Quarterly Web Cast and Dividend Stock Screen
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September 26, 2008
Economists Weigh In
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September 19, 2008
Stock Market Applauds U.S. Government Plan
What a week this has been. MORE

September 16, 2008
No Rate Change, Easing Bias
In a unanimous decision, policymakers did not cut the benchmark fed funds rate, despite the market’s call for an easing move. MORE

September 15, 2008
Fed Widens Collateral
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September 14, 2008
Wild Day Tomorrow
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September 11, 2008
Recovery Still a Year Away
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August 29, 2008
The New Cold War
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August 22, 2008
Hedge Funds Face Shock Waves
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August 7, 2008
Fed Policy Tighter than Normal at 2% Fed Funds
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August 1, 2008
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July 18, 2008
A Global Presidential Campaign
What better evidence is there that globalization is real and permanent than the foreign trips of both presidential candidates? MORE

July 15, 2008
Crisis Widens
The U.S. financial markets and the U.S. economy are in crisis and the ramifications for the rest of the world are enormous MORE

July 7, 2008
Next Shock: Currency Crisis?
The malaise of the U.S. economy is palpable MORE


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BMO Nesbitt Burns Economics