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July 18, 2008 A Global Presidential Campaign Bottom Line |
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What better evidence is there that globalization is real and permanent
than the foreign trips of both presidential candidates? Never before
in my memory have non-incumbent candidates for president given
campaign speeches in foreign countries. Barack Obama is planning to do
just that next week. John McCain has already given campaign speeches
in Ottawa, Colombia and Mexico, talking up free trade and appealing to
Hispanic voters. He has also racked up frequent flier miles making
stops last spring from the U.K. to Iraq. Cindy McCain has traveled
recently to Vietnam and Rwanda with international relief
organizations.
Barack Obama’s upcoming trip is an audition on the world stage
where the most important critics will be the voters back home. Of
course, Senator Obama’s travel is intended to make a positive
impression and burnish his international credentials. A major theme of
his sojourns is his promise to be a commander-in-chief who will listen
to America’s allies. The intention is for Obama to look
knowledgeable, diplomatic and presidential. This could backfire, of
course, if he makes a serious gaffe or otherwise reveals ignorance of
global and national security issues.
Also, there is the ‘out-of-touch elitist’ label
(‘Bittergate’) he’s been fighting since the
Pennsylvania primary. Republicans are pointing out that Democrats have
more of a European worldview than the Arizona Senator does; McCain
will likely appeal to any xenophobic sentiment. John McCain is most
popular among older blue-collar workers who question Obama’s
patriotism and don’t see him as ‘one of us.’
Senator Obama’s six-day foreign trip to the Middle East and
Europe starts Monday. He is expected to separately visit Iraq and
Afghanistan as early as the end of the week as part of a small
congressional delegation. The group is scheduled to meet with Iraqi
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, President Jalal Talabani, and other
Iraqi government and Parliament leaders.
Foreign campaigning is not only new to the U.S., but it is virtually
unheard of in other countries as well. It is hard to imagine a
candidate for high office in Canada, Europe or Asia staging a campaign
speech before Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate (as Obama’s people
allegedly suggested) or New York’s World Trade Center
site—both historical and emotional symbols. Presidents Kennedy
and Reagan spoke at the Brandenburg Gate, but certainly not during an
election campaign. And there is no doubt that Americans will watch
these unprecedented events and be impacted by the response and size of
the crowds. Given Obama’s noted charisma and popularity in much
of left-leaning Europe, we can imagine the Parisians treating him like
a rock star (or a Tour de France winner).
There are serious land mines in this endeavour. In the Middle East,
Senator Obama is expected to meet privately with Palestinian President
Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, where he could encounter criticism for
endorsing an “undivided” Jerusalem. In Tel Aviv and
Jerusalem, he will face opposition to his proposal to have direct
talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Is it strange that both candidates are spending time abroad when
domestic economic concerns top the list of voter worries? Not when
national security is also a paramount issue and Americans are
realizing that their own economic well-being is no longer determined
strictly within American borders. The U.S. is home to most of the
world’s largest multinational corporations. Over the past decade
or more, bond and stock prices have been boosted by the mammoth inflow
of foreign capital, and currently much of the required capital
injections at troubled banks are funded by foreign entities. Consumers
have benefited from the huge influx of cheap foreign goods, but jobs
have been lost to low-wage locales as American business struggles to
remain competitive and profitable. While in the past, most Americans
had no knowledge of U.S. foreign exchange rates, today more people
than ever realize the falling dollar has reduced their purchasing
power and affected their spending behaviour. What’s more, many
Americans rue the rise in global anti-American sentiment and look to
the next President to improve America’s brand. At the same time,
Americans want a president who can hold his own—that he’s
no pushover. Much of this will be visceral.
The Bottom Line: This is a presidential election campaign like
no other at a period of transition in the U.S. and global economies.
The future role of the U.S. as importer and lender of last resort is
in question; while benefiting much of the rest of the world, it has
clearly caused unsustainable disequilibria. No longer can nor should
the U.S. be the world’s banker and the world’s consumer.
Not only are the excesses in U.S. housing and financial markets
unwinding, but the U.S. role as the single anchor currency and anchor
economy is unwinding as well. The economic hegemony of the U.S. is no
longer feasible, necessary nor desirable. The global economy of the
future will be increasingly multilateral without single-country
dominance. The industrial world will share its dominant role with the
emerging world as national economic boundaries continue to blur. In
this environment, domestic policies must be managed with a global
view. We have seen the contagion effect between countries with the
1997 Asian crisis and now the subprime crisis. Internationalization of
the current presidential campaign is yet another step in this
direction.
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