August 29, 2008

The New Cold War
Bottom Line

Russia began the latest flexing of its political and economic muscles as China, with the Beijing Olympics, was about to begin its triumphant coming out party. While the economic revolution in China has garnered much of the world’s attention in recent years, Russia has also enjoyed a burst of economic prosperity since the late 1990s with the rising importance of Russian oil and gas exports. Since 2000, the Russian economy has grown by an average annual rate of over 7% and per capita income has risen sharply.

Since 2006, real domestic demand has surged at a whopping 13.5% annual pace as rising energy revenues have financed ongoing fiscal expansion. (Mineral goods, such as natural gas, oil and coal now represent more than two-thirds of Russian exports, compared to under 50% in 1997.) Monetary policy remains lax despite rising inflation. As well, stepped up government transfers to households have increased the growth in private consumption spending to 13% in the first quarter of this year. Gross fixed investment grew at a stunning 19.4% in Q1, about in line with their performance since 2006. Russia is feeling its economic prowess and with huge current account surpluses, its sovereign fund investments around the world are impacting global financial markets. Russia, for example, holds $60 billion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac paper.

Russia’s recent aggressive military actions in Georgia are a manifestation of the revived Russian juggernaut. With large budget surpluses and low government debt, Russia has successfully rebuilt its military since the embarrassment in Afghanistan in the 1980s and the drain of the more recent Chechen campaign. Russia has long had conflicts and an aggressive-possessive view towards its border countries. This time, the Georgian secessionist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are the pawns in question. Russia’s aggressive actions and the West’s muted response are intrinsically connected to the growing dependence of NATO countries on Russian energy exports. Apparently, Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev are claiming Russia’s place in the developing multi-polarity of global economic and geopolitical power.

President Medvedev has put the West on alert for a new Cold War that the Kremlin is apparently ready to fight. This week, he ordered his Foreign Ministry to establish diplomatic ties with the secessionist regions and is quoted as saying “we are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a Cold War.” Russian troops still occupy positions in Georgia, including the vital Black Sea port of Poti.

G7 foreign ministers issued a stinging condemnation of Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of Georgia’s breakaway regions. The statement called Russia’s excessive use of military force in Georgia and its continued occupation of parts of Georgia deplorable. But just how real the NATO response might be is questionable.

Russia supplies about 30% of the European Union’s crude oil needs and roughly half of its natural gas. Germany now imports 36% of its natural gas and 32% of its oil from Russia, its largest single source of either. Greece relies on Moscow for 82% of its natural gas and 29% of its oil. Even more heavily dependent on Russian energy are Belgium, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Baltic States, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Finland and, to a lesser extent, Spain, France and Italy.

If Russia turns off the natural gas taps this winter, Europeans will freeze and businesses will shut down. This is the real threat of the new “cold war” and the U.S. can do little about it. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, which goes through Georgia, transports oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey from suppliers independent not only of Russia but also OPEC. It is Azerbaijan’s main oil export outlet. The pipeline is majority owned by London-based BP PLC and supplies 1% of the world’s oil needs, pumping up to a million barrels of crude per day to Turkey. The EU and the U.S. recognize that there are few issues more immediate than energy security and Georgia’s fragile oil pipelines offers one alternative to dependence on Russia.

Ex-Soviet states are wary of U.S. promises to build pipelines and are reluctant to anger Moscow as long as the U.S. and the rest of NATO appear unwilling to support militarily its Georgian ally. The U.S. military is already over-stretched with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, so its support of its allies appears limited to diplomatic channels. The Kremlin, therefore, feels free to use its energy dominance as a weapon. In December 2006, Gazprom threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Georgia. Russia reduced its oil supply to the Czech Republic last month after the country allowed a U.S. missile defense radar on its soil, despite Moscow’s objections.

As a counter to Moscow’s growing strength, Washington wants pipelines built to Western Europe, bypassing Russia and Iran. These projects now face questions over security and stability of supplies. These hurdles, together with Russia’s opposition, were already in place before the Russian-Georgian war, so the conflict, and the presence of Russian forces in Georgia, could well force Europe to rethink plans to increase reliance on energy supplies from the region.

This has become a very testy issue in the current election. According to Senator Joseph Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, U.S. efforts to promote pipelines have foundered so far because they are a low priority for the Bush administration. These and many other key economic and geopolitical issues await the next administration.



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December 4, 2009
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October 22, 2009
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September 9, 2009
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August 12, 2009
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July 24, 2009
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July 17, 2009
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July 10, 2009
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July 2, 2009
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June 8, 2009
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June 5, 2009
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May 28, 2009
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April 29, 2009
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April 27, 2009
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April 24, 2009
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March 25, 2009
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March 18, 2009
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March 13, 2009
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March 11, 2009
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February 5, 2009
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January 30, 2009
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January 28, 2009
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January 27, 2009
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January 23, 2009
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January 9, 2009
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December 18, 2008
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December 16, 2008
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December 5, 2008
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December 3, 2008
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November 21, 2008
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November 15, 2008
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November 14, 2008
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November 6, 2008
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November 5, 2008
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October 16, 2008
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October 10, 2008
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October 10, 2008
More Action-Crisis Intensifies
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October 9, 2008
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October 8, 2008
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October 7, 2008
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October 1, 2008
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September 26, 2008
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September 19, 2008
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September 16, 2008
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September 15, 2008
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September 14, 2008
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September 11, 2008
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August 29, 2008
The New Cold War
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August 22, 2008
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August 7, 2008
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August 1, 2008
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July 18, 2008
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July 15, 2008
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July 7, 2008
Next Shock: Currency Crisis?
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BMO Nesbitt Burns Economics