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September 9, 2009 Unbelievable Bottom Line |
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An article in today’s Wall Street Journal highlighted the
possibility of the Chinese Investment Corporation (CIC)—the sovereign
wealth fund responsible for investing roughly $300 billion (and growing) of
China’s foreign exchange reserves—investing in U.S. commercial real
estate which is already down roughly 35% from its peak. (China established its
sovereign wealth fund in 2007 to help manage the nation’s $2 trillion of
foreign-exchange reserves and many expect the government to allocate increasing
volumes to CIC management to diversify its FX reserve holdings.)
The kicker is that the CIC appears to be eligible to do so under the joint
U.S. Treasury-Federal Reserve Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), which
provides a major subsidy to private investors to buy up the toxic assets still
clogging bank balance sheets. It is surprising that China’s sovereign
wealth fund is considered eligible as a private investor. It is not
surprising that the CIC has been interested for some time in buying distressed
property assets, especially mortgage securities backed by commercial real
estate. According to the article, the CIC is also interested in
“buying outright ownership interests in buildings.”
The Chinese have been on a spending spree all year. As I wrote in an August
17th issue of this report, the CIC has said it will actively grasp
investment opportunities this year after slowing spending in 2008 because of
the global financial crisis. CIC had 87.4% of its global portfolio in cash and
cash equivalents at the end of 2008, according to its annual report. It spent
$4.8 billion on new investments last year compared with at least $8 billion in
2007. This year, the CIC in one month has deployed as much capital as in all of
2008 and might ask the government to let it invest more of the FX reserves.
CIC made its first major investment in a Canadian company in July when it
acquired a 17.2% stake in Teck Resources, Canada’s largest diversified
mining, mineral processing and metallurgical company. Teck also holds a 20%
interest in the Fort Hills oilsands project owned by Petro-Canada. By taking an
interest in Teck, CIC continued its strategic plan to buy foreign resource
companies while they are cheap. (CIC has also made loans in exchange for
commodities in the case of Russia and Brazil.) And CIC is not the only Chinese
entity that has been investing. Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Corporation, and
state-owned enterprise in China agreed to invest US$240 million in
Canada’s Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Ltd.’s development in
northern Quebec and buy ore from the project once it’s operating. Late
last month, PetroChina made a $1.9 billion bid for a majority share of two
Alberta oilsands projects—a deal to buy a 60% interest in Athabasca Oil
Sands Corp.’s MacKay River and Dover projects. This has set off the usual
flurry of worry about selling Canadian strategic assets to a foreign
government.
As the CIC turns its attention to America’s damaged real estate
assets, there is little information regarding how much the fund is willing to,
but the potential firepower of the sovereign fund is huge. Some have suggested
that it could be upwards of $10 billion (or more) by 2014. An important part of
the current appeal is the financing offered through PPIP. Under the program,
the Treasury will co-invest with funds that buy toxic mortgages. The U.S.
government, under the auspices of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, will
make financing available by providing equity capital of up to 100% of the
private capital raised by nine designated U.S. fund managers including
BlackRock and Invesco, through which the CIC is reportedly working. PPIP limits
investments by any single investor to no more than 9.9% of each PPIP fund. This
limit was set to assuage concerns that any one investor, like China, could
control too much.
Bottom Line: In these troubled times, it seems likely that Congress
and the U.S. public will balk at government subsidization of CIC investment in
U.S. real estate. This hearkens back to the braying associated with the 1980s
Japanese purchase of Rockefeller Center and Pebble Beach in Carmel; but, the
outcry now could be even louder as those Japanese purchases were not financed
with taxpayer dollars.
The CIC this year has invested money in a real-estate trust in Australia and
bought an indirect stake in Canary Wharf Group in London. In addition, it has
put some money into a global property fund run by Morgan Stanley. Clearly,
China will continue to pour billions, if not trillions, of dollars into direct
investments around the world. Much of it thus far has been in businesses that
produce the commodity products for which China has enormous excess demand.
Initially, large component of that investment was in emerging economies or
others whose governments were not fussy about foreign-government ownership of
strategic assets. Many of them were less-than friendly with the U.S. and happy
to do business with China. But now, even Canada appears to be willing to
allow Chinese-government run entities to buy private Canadian businesses. It
will be interesting to see if the U.S. government, in its need for capital in
these depressed times, will be willing not only to allow the CIC to buy
American assets, but to actually sweeten the deal using taxpayer money.
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June 19, 2010 China Loosens Currency Peg In a surprise announcement on Saturday, the People’s Bank of China
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